During such a bad time, both for Global Economy and also for Indian Market, hardly a positive thought comes into my mind. This recession period has certainly shaken the world badly. And over that in India we are having this ongoing “Satyam Saga” which makes my mind go into more and more into a negative loop. The situation is going to be really bad over next year as the after effects of US sub prime problem will actually be hitting and spreading all over the world and India no exception for that.
I am neither an astrologer nor a person who gets visions about the future but today I was just thinking about the current IT situation in India. And I developed this theory just by thinking with some common sense and simple calculations. And what I could foresee was really picture no one wants to see. It goes this way…
Now almost every Indian IT company will be celebrating or already had celebrated its Silver Jubilee (In their Youth) in coming or past 5-10 years period. Those people who were really instrumental in forming or developing such IT firms are lying in the highest level of management or just retired for a well deserved break. If you consider in almost every major IT firm there would be a bunch of 100-200 people who really started and have seen the company grow during all those years. You can say every company has such a core group. Some are part of think tank, some are into Management committee, and some are even into board of directors. This group has reached elite positions after a long period of hard work and dedication. And almost every major IT giant has such people who drive their company forward.
The new generation has certainly taken advantage of IT boom and contributed their part in the success. But the people which are of the age group 20 to 30 are almost 75% of the human resources the IT firms have. This generation is also hard working and earned the respect of their seniors by performing very well. And they are the actual work force behind the IT success.
Now let us go say 20-25 years in future…
The top management of every IT firm that we see today must have changed by now and we will certainly see new faces heading IT. That will be a very obvious change considering the period. But now comes the tricky question…
The generation which was about 75% of the human resources 25 years back will be matured by that time. They all would have worked very dedicatedly and passionately to reach the heights they once saw their seniors reach. But every firm will have only 200 to 300 such elite positions to fill up (Considering the 50% hike in available top brass positions) and as we know almost everyone from our generation is working in IT and after maturity all of us want to go up the ladder both financially and designation wise.
But there won’t be those many positions available even after considering 50% hike in availability of such positions. So where this people will go? Its very obvious that any IT company cannot afford such large number of managers or senior employees on their payroll as it takes its own toll on annual budget. And people will go into depression if their salary won’t be increased as per the seniority criteria. And everywhere in Indian IT market you will find the same situation. As our generation had already committed to IT now it’s very difficult to reverse the flow and later it would even become more difficult to take any corrective action.
After the current round of recession companies will take time to rise again and even if they grow as rapidly to double their growth still such high number of elite jobs won’t be available. So everyone won’t be happy certainly few years down the line and some of us will be still craving for salary increase. And it would be so difficult to satisfy the needs of current generation. There would be disharmony creeping all over the IT market in India.
A large chunk of people will be disheartened due to lack of good opportunities and at their age they won’t be able to shift the field also. It would become the question of survival of the fittest.
I was just analyzing this theory again and again and could find any solutions on it.
I guess Everything comes to an end so will be the Indian IT dream in a way that IT companies may grow or may not grow, it would eventually leave a large bunch of people sad and unsatisfied.
Whatever I thought I noted down on this blog… Your comments and suggestions are welcome!! I know it might be one of you have an answer for this or have another path which leads to some positive conclusion. Because suddenly it has started to look all gloomy, isn’t it?
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2 comments:
Nice post !!
It is obvious that the recent gloomy condition in the market has proved you to think like this. But, I believe that every business has its own life span curve, which normally starts with spikes and get stabilized as time goes on and so will be IT.
But YES, the condition has created sense of insecurity among us. As you mentioned, the recent "Sathyam Saga" is an insult to the injury. "TIME" should answer these questions.
Very profound thinking there, Animal!
But you know what? Most economies, even after taking a few hard knocks, rise again. And the current state of affairs is another step in the ladder of success..
People need a setback, be it financial, emotional or even a physical one, to make them take a step back to assess their situation and come up with troubleshooting band-aids for damage control.
I agree with Karthikeyan.. Time is the great healer. Just wait and watch how things turn around. You would be amazed!
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